对外贸易中行业自律定价行为的博弈分析

当前我国经济生活中存在的一个突出的现象是价格战与行业自律定价并存。从中国参与出口的同质企业所结成的价格卡特尔表明:出口企业追求利润最大化行为的结果必然陷入"囚徒困境",表现为价格大战;在没有外在强制力量时,企业尽管可以相互依存,仍然走不出困境;如果惩罚条款这一承诺行动可以置信,则出现合作均衡;优势企业也可促使合作均衡的出现。     

Pricing dynamics in US fresh produce channels: new empirical evidence

Despite many valuable contributions, prior research has not completely explained retail pricing behavior. This study employs scanner data for 36 fresh produce items analyzing the relationship between costs of goods sold and retail prices to provide further insight into retail pricing behavior. Implications include: (1) where ‘natural’ variation in produce prices do not already exist from the supplier, retailers appear to introduce the variation themselves, independent from shipping point price; and (2) to the extent that supplier-retailer contracts for fresh produce develop, the resulting stabilizing influence on costs may have the preserve effect of increasing retail price variability to consumers.     

我国房地产价格的影响因素及其合理性研究

利用我国2000年第一季度到2007年第二季度的数据进行实证研究,结果表明我国居民可支配收入和土地价格与房价成正相关关系,而实际利率与房价成负相关关系。据此采用协整分析和H-P滤波,计算了我国房地产均衡价格水平,以及房地产价格偏离均衡价格的程度,认为我国房地产市场价格的偏离主要受部分地区的影响,存在"局部泡沫"。     

中国鞋类产品出口受阻的原因及对策

长期以来,“薄利多销”的低价策略成为我国鞋类企业扩大出口创汇、走向国际市场的一大法宝,但从近期我国鞋类出口面临一系列的贸易摩擦来看,低价策略并非当今出口企业的最佳选择,若不及时调整这种策略,可能会严重制约企业的发展。本文分析了鞋类企业低价竞销产生的原因及其危害性,并就如何解决这一问题进行了初步的探讨。     

城市污水处理行业的激励性价格管制

本文在借鉴雪理佛和巴杰夫特提出的区域间比较竞争模型基础上,引入利润率和质量系数,构建了两阶段污水处理区域间比较竞争定价模型,主要运用数据包络分析方法确定标杆企业,以促进污水处理企业之间的比较竞争。并以浙江省污水处理行业为例,运用聚类分析方法对污水处理企业的异质性进行区分与分类,对典型的污水处理企业进行价格测算,为污水处理行业实行激励性价格管制提供理论依据。     

Online Price Search: Impact of Price Comparison Sites on Offline Price Evaluations

Consumers increasingly rely on Internet price comparison sites (PCS) to gain knowledge about the market. The prices generated by a PCS search can act as contextual reference prices and influence the attractiveness of prices encountered later as consumers shop offline at local stores. This paper demonstrates that both PCS retailer ratings and the shape of the PCS price distribution influence the impact of PCS search results on later price evaluations. A favorable PCS retailer rating increases the perceived validity of the price associated with that retailer, enhancing the impact of that PCS price on offline price evaluations (Study 1). The shape of the PCS price distribution can also influence later price evaluations, however this effect depends on the information provided by the PCS retailer ratings. When PCS retailer ratings are similar, implying similar validity for the associated prices, low PCS prices and those appearing more frequently in the PCS price distribution have more impact (Studies 2 and 3). When PCS retailer ratings are variable (some high and some low), the PCS price distribution effect occurs only when the PCS retailer ratings provide congruent information about price validity — that is, the most frequent price is offered by retailers with more favorable ratings. Study 3 shows that price validity inferences do mediate this result. Finally, we depart from the offline shopping context to show that when consumers choose a retailer directly from the PCS search results, the effect of PCS retailer ratings is stronger for high-priced retailers and for consumers who rely less on the retailer price as a heuristic to infer retailer service level. Based on our findings we offer insights for online and offline retailers when considering strategic responses, such as price matching guarantees.     

Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

Why do commercial banks hold government bonds? The case of Japan

We investigate the determinants of the demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) by commercial banks in Japan. In particular, by estimating portfolio equations for JGB demand and bank loans, based on a panel data set from the late 1990s to the 2000s, we rigorously test the popular assertion that the long stagnation of the real economy caused a shift in the portfolios of commercial banks from bank lending to JGBs. We find that the popular assertion is not empirically supported. Rather, the portfolio shift from loans to JGBs has been caused by a fall in the ratio of the loan rate to unit lending costs, or the bank’s price–cost margin for lending.     

The leverage effect and the basket-index put spread

Benchmark models that exogenously specify equity dynamics cannot explain the large spread in prices between put options written on individual banks and options written on the bank index during the financial crisis. However, theory requires that asset dynamics be specified exogenously and that endogenously determined equity dynamics exhibit a “leverage effect” that increases put prices by fattening the left tail of the distribution. The leverage effect is larger for puts on individual stocks than for puts on the index, thus increasing the basket-index spread. Time-series and cross-sectional variation in the leverage effect explains option prices well.     

On commodity price limits

This paper examines the behavior of futures prices and trader positions around the occurrence of price limits in commodity futures markets. We ask whether limit events are the result of shocks to fundamental volatility or the result of temporary volatility induced by the trading of noncommercial market participants (speculators). We find little evidence that limits events are the result of speculative activity, but instead associated with shocks to fundamentals that lead to persistent price changes. When futures trading halts price discovery migrates to options markets, but option prices provide a biased estimate of subsequent future prices when trading resumes.